Eastern Europe – Getting Europe Right

Demokratisierungsprozesse und ihre Akteure

Ein Überblick zum Stand der Theoriebildung

in: Protest im langen Schatten des Kreml. Aufbruch und Resignation in Russland und der Ukraine, hg. v. O. Zabirko und J. Mischke, Stuttgart: Ibidem 2020, 17-36

Seit den Übergängen zur Demokratie in Ostmitteleuropa 1989/90 ist eine umfangreiche sozialwissenschaftliche Literatur zur Demokratisierung entstanden. Diese Arbeiten haben die Bedingungen, Verlaufsmuster und Ergebnisse von Demokratisierungsprozessen rekonstruiert und im Ländervergleich analysiert. Sie sind bisher jedoch noch nicht so weit fortgeschritten, dass man eine bestimmte Anzahl von Akteurkonstellationen und Strategien benennen könnte, die für die Errichtung und Konsolidierung demokratischer Institutionen notwendig und hinreichend sind. Während modernisierungstheoretische Studien die für eine stabile Demokratie erforderlichen ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Strukturbedingungen hervorhoben, betrachteten Studien zu den lateinamerikanischen und südeuropäischen Demokratie-Übergängen Abkommen (“Pakte”) zwischen Reformern innerhalb der herrschenden Elite und moderaten Oppositionsführern als die entscheidenden Weichenstellungen für die neue Demokratie. Die spätere Forschung argumentierte dagegen, dass stabile Demokratien sich nicht aus Kräftegleichgewichten bildeten, sondern dort, wo demokratische politische Akteure über die Kräfte des autoritären Regimes triumphierten. read more

Eastern Partnership Index 2018 Update

On 25 January 2018, the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum published the fifth edition of the Eastern Partnership Index. The Index is a set of individual and composite indicators which measure the extent to which the six Eastern European neighbour countries of the European Union have established sustainable democratic institutions and made progress towards closer integration with the EU.

In the methodology suggested by me, “integration” is conceived as a core and multi-dimensional concept that consists of converging norms, growing economic exchange, deeper transnational networks linking up societies, and more frequent contacts between people. This broad notion of integration implies that EU membership or association may be aims, stages or final states of the integration process. However, it is not limited to a measure of harmonisation with EU norms and standards, but also reflects actual societal, economic and political change. The levels of contractual relations between the Eastern Partnership states and the EU are viewed as elements of a much broader process that is, as a whole, not driven or controlled solely by governments and intergovernmental negotiations.

Rather, European integration is seen as a non-hierarchical, networked process where citizens, civic associations and business organisations play important roles. The interplay of these actors has been crucial for the historical development of the EU itself, as it induced and supported national political elites to take legal and institutional steps towards closer integration. Drawing on this experience, the Index is built on the premise that the ties between societies, peoples and economies form dimensions of European integration that are at least as important as the policy agendas of national governments and European Commission officials.

It is further assumed that transnational linkages contribute to the emergence and spread of common European and international norms which, in turn, facilitate closer linkages with the EU. For example, increasing trade is likely to strengthen domestic companies that benefit from foreign investment and are likely to become interested in courts that protect investors’ rights. A judicial system based on fair procedures and professionalism will then contribute to attracting more foreign investors.

An analogous reinforcing dynamic derives from a commitment to international norms and universal values. By incorporating democratic values, the protection of human rights and the rule of law in their constitutions, EaP states have adopted universal norms that have formed the basis of co-operation and integration among West European states since the end of the Second World War. The more these norms are implemented and respected in EaP states, the more co-operation with the EU will ensue because these states and the EU will increasingly recognise each other as partners sharing common norms and underlying values.

Download the report:EaP_Index_2016

Download the dataset

Politics and Religion in Eastern Europe

An interview with Magda Crișan, Romanian TV program Digi24, 11 May 2016

Political elites in East European countries have often referred to religious beliefs or sought to form alliances with church leaders. One aim of their efforts has been to convince citizens and the public that they share common values and are committed to act ethically responsibly.

Putin_Kyrill More frequent references and appeals to shared religious beliefs in recent years reflect the growth of right-wing populism, uncertainties caused by the crisis of European integration and fears regarding the inflow of predominantly Muslim refugees. The extent to which religious references are made in political discourses also varies according to the strength of religious allegiances and the respective influence of churches in societies. Contemporary resonance structures are rooted in state identities and the influences of historical state-building coalitions with churches.

Read the full-length interview (Romanian language): INTERVIU_ReligionPolitics

Watch the video (German, Romanian subtitles):

Politische Legitimität

Sozialwissenschaftliche Diskussion und Herrschaftsressource im postsowjetischen Raum.

Gutachten für das Zentrum für Internationale und Osteuropastudien

Ziel der Studie ist es, den Stand der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung zu politischer Legitimität zusammenzufassen und zu analysieren, inwieweit Legitimationsstrategien politischer Eliten und Legitimitätsauffassungen in der Bevölkerung zur Stabilisierung politischer Regime in postsowjetischen Staaten beitragen. Die Studie ist in sechs Abschnitte gegliedert. read more

Contestation and Democracy in Eastern Europe

Keynote Lecture, Annual Graduate Conference for East European Studies, Akademie für Politische Bildung Tutzing, 19 June 2015Movie Rings (2017)

Is East European politics more contested than in the past?
Why has public contestation increased?
How does increased contestation influence democracy and the prospects of democratization in Eastern Europe?

Report (in German):JOE2015_AkPB_Report

Zur Lage der Demokratie in Osteuropa

Ein Interview für das WDR-Osteuropamagazin, 6.7.2014

Den ostmittel- und südosteuropäischen Staaten hat die Krise der Eurozone vor Augen geführt, welchen Anpassungszwängen weniger wettbewerbsfähige Länder ausgesetzt sind und welche sozialen und politischen Erschütterungen die erzwungenen inneren Abwertungen auslösen können. Die Konflikte innerhalb der Währungsunion und die anhaltende Rezession in den südeuropäischen Staaten belegen, dass ein Beitritt zur EU und zur Eurozone weder eine Gewähr für ökonomische Stabilität und Entwicklung bietet, noch als Kompass für eigene Reformen ausreicht. Zudem hat die Krise die Bruchlinien zwischen den Wirtschafts- und Sozialmodellen und den zu Grunde liegenden politischen Ökonomien in Nordwest- und Südeuropa vertieft.

Mein Bericht für den Transformation Index analysiert, wie sich diese Prozesse auf die Lage der Demokratie in Ostmittel- und Südosteuropa auswirken. Die Befunde aus diesem Bericht waren Thema des Interviews.

BTI14_OMESOE

Теории демократизации: состояние исследований

Статья в сборнике “Беларусизация.
Можно ли завершить процесс институционального
строительства независимого государства?”, под редакцией Андрея Шутова, Вильнюс: Центр европейской трансформации 2014, 45-58. Belarusizatsiya

После целого ряда политических переходов, произошедших в Восточной Европе в 1989-90 годах, объем сравнительных исследований на тему демократизации значительно рос. Однако ученые до настоящего времени не пришли к согласию относительно комплекса созвездий действующих лиц и стратегий, которые являлись бы необходимыми и достаточными для установления и упрочения демократических институтов. В ранних исследованиях подчеркивалось значение заключения пактов между реформаторами внутри правящей элиты и умеренными лидерами оппозиции. В более поздних исследованиях упор делался на том, что стабильная демократия возникла только на базе таких созвездий, в которых демократические политические деятели доминировали над силами авторитарного режима. Явная консолидация после второй половины 1990-х годов политических режимов, расположенных между полной демократией и полной автократией, привела к возрождению структурных подходов. Такие попытки объяснения рассматривают конфликты государственности, социально-экономические условия и культурное наследие в качестве более важных факторов смены режимов, чем деятельность политических элит.

Скачать файл:TeoriiDemokratizatsii

Federalism and Governance Winter School

A lecture series on ethno-regional diversity and political integration in Central and Eastern Europe, European Academy Bozen/Bolzano, Winter School Federalism and Governance, 12 February 2014

Outline

• Does ethno-regional diversity still matter in Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE)?
• How have CEE regions emerged?
• Why have the state socialist federations collapsed?
• What approaches exist to integrate ethno-regional diversity?
• Why have CEE states reformed their territorial organization?
• How does European integration affect regionalization in CEE?

Germany’s Role in Timoshenko’s Release from Prison

Interview with Evgen Tei’ze, Deutsche Welle, Ukrainian-language service, 21.11.2013

European diplomatic pressure led the Ukrainian government to release the former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko from prison. How the German government assesses this decision in view of a pending ruling the European Court of Human Rights will declare on Timoshenko’s imprisonment.

Making Reform Happen

Towards a Diagnostic Framework

Keynote paper for the SELLER Network Conference, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, 21-25 May 2012, Budva

Abstract

The present paper suggests a conceptual framework that disentangles the “politics of policy reform” as a chain of delegation and accountability relations. This framework shall help reformers and consultants to analyze weak links in the chain. The proposed approach overlaps with the notion of a policy cycle, but focuses on political actors and their interdependence, while avoiding the temporal, institutionalized sequence associated with the cycle idea.

Since policy reforms can be defined as changes of the status quo that enhance aggregate welfare in the longterm perspective, they can be assumed to reflect enlightened self-interests of a majority of citizens. Making reforms could thus be conceived in a wide sense as the challenge of translating citizens’ policy preferences into policies. But this chain from citizens to civil servants consists of many links that involve the delegation of authority and are fraught with problems of agency: that agents do not faithfully pursue the interests of their principals. Principal-agent theory has distinguished two types of agency problems: principals are unable to choose the right agents (called adverse selection) or principals are unable to control the behavior of their agents once a contractual relationship has been set up (moral hazard). To contain these agency problems in the political process, principals have established mechanisms of political accountability. Accountability implies that a principal has a right to demand information from an agent, and a capacity to impose sanctions.

The present paper argues that sustainable policy reforms depend on functioning delegation and accountability links. It is not enough to develop the enforcement capacities of agents through technical assistance projects. More attention should be paid to strengthening their accountability and avoiding “agency loss”. Five links may be distinguished in the chain of accountability and delegation: 1. citizens –> political parties; 2. political parties –> parliamentary deputies; 3. parliament –> government; 4. core executive –> ministers; 5. ministers –> state administration. Note that this chain simplifies a variety of more complex empirical accountability relations. One could also add a sixth link existing between government and independent public agencies and other implementing organizations belonging to the private or non-profit sector. But this link will not be covered here as the focus is on politics and the public sector. The five main links will now be discussed and illustrated with evidence from Southeast Europe and Eurasia.