Politics and Legitimacy in Post-Soviet Eurasia

New Publication

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Political legitimacy has become a scarce resource in Russia and other post-Soviet states in Eurasia. Their capacity to deliver prosperity has suffered from economic crisis, the conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing confrontation with the West. Will nationalism and repression enable political regimes to survive?

This book investigates the politics of legitimation in post-Soviet countries, focusing on how political and intellectual elites exploit different modes of legitimation. Combining cross-national comparisons and country case studies, it addresses state-economy relations, pro-presidential parties, courts, ideas of nationhood, historical and literary narratives. read more

Back to the Future?

Retrograde Modernization in Russia and the Post-Soviet Region

A Cross-Disciplinary Conference Organized by KomPost and the German Association for East European Studies (DGO), Berlin 23-24 October 2015

Levels of economic development, income and education provide a firm structural basis for democracy in Russia. However, an authoritarian model of government has prevailed and has even taken stronger hold of society in recent years. This trend is all the more puzzling since the political leadership has been less able to rely on economic growth to legitimize its rule. Governing elites are essentially confined to symbolic resources of legitimacy, such as historical grievances, threat perceptions, notions of exceptionalism and imperial identity.

In employing these resources, incumbent elites evoke ghosts of a past that appears to be more present now than during Russia’s departure for democracy in the 1990s or during the prosperous 2000s. Reviving the territorial thinking of the 19th and 20th century, Crimea’s incorporation is used to demonstrate Russia’s reconstitution as a great power. Novorossiya, a historical region annexed by Tsarist Russia, serves to establish a Russian claim on Ukrainian territory. Russia is framed as subject to Western “containment” strategies, borrowing from the terminological arsenal of the Cold War. In a romanticizing fashion, political representatives assume Russian culture to harbor and cherish traditional values that are deemed to be threatened by neglect and relativism in the West. The official rhetoric of economic reform resuscitates the idea of “import substitution” from the economic development agenda of the 1960s. Contemporary notions of “conservatory modernization” and “innovatization” are reminiscent of pseudo-reform discourses shaping the Brezhnev era.

The conference analyzed how political actors use references of the past to interpret and justify their policies. How do these references and quotations fit into the official frame of Russia as a non-Western civilization and an alternative to Western moral permissiveness? Can elements of what may be termed “retro-modernization” provide a viable ideology for authoritarian rule? What do we know about their appeal among Russian elites and in Russian society? How do critics of official discourses and policies relate to the appropriation and reactivation of traditions? How do neotraditionalist ideas resonate in other post-Soviet countries?

Drawing on work from the research network ‘Institutions and institutional change in Postsocialism’, the conference panels discussed ideas and strategies of retrograde modernization in discourses about the role of the state, economic policy and Russian culture.

Program: Retro_2015

Report (in German): Tagungsbericht

Spielräume und Grenzen der Visegrád-Kooperation

in Ungarn 1989-2014. Eine Bilanz nach 25 Jahren, hrsg. v. H. Küpper, Zs. H. Lengyel und H. Scheuringer, Verlag F. Pustet, Regensburg 2015, 55-76

Ungarn

Dieser Beitrag bilanziert die Kooperation zwischen den vier ostmitteleuropäischen Staaten Polen, Slowakei, Tschechien und Ungarn, die auf die Visegráder Erklärung von 1991 zurückgeht und als sogenannte Visegrád-Gruppe organisiert wurde. Vor dem Hintergrund der demokratischen Umbrüche 1989/90 waren die neuen politischen Eliten mit ähnlichen Herausforderungen konfrontiert und sich einig in dem Ziel, ihre Staaten vollständig in das europäische politische, ökonomische, Sicherheits- und Rechtssystem zu integrieren. Dieses Ziel erreichten sie mit den Beitritten zur NATO 1999/2004 und zur Europäischen Union 2004. Dennoch setzten die vier Visegrád-Staaten ihre verstärkte Kooperation nach 2004 fort, und ihre Beziehungen verdichteten sich sogar.

Der Fortbestand der Visegrád-Gruppe nach 2004 erscheint überraschend und erklärungsbedürftig, wenn man berücksichtigt, dass zahlreiche Einflussfaktoren auf eine Divergenz der nationalen Interessen hinwirkten. Während die Beitrittsperspektive als Kooperationsanreiz entfiel, traten Meinungsunterschiede zwischen den vier Staaten in der Folge deutlicher hervor.

Warum hat die Visegrád-Gruppe trotzdem die erste Dekade nach dem EU-Beitritt überlebt und ist nicht in Lähmung oder Bedeutungslosigkeit verfallen?

 

Methodology of Social Science Research

Training for the Institute of World Policy, Kiev, 4 September 2015

A full day of teaching with the staff of Ukraine’s leading independent think tank for International Relations, the Institute of World Policy. The main themes were:
1. Research design / causation, theory building;
2. Conceptualization and measurement
3. Qualitative and quantitative methods
4. Evaluating policies

Regression
(c) Martin Brusis

Video clips available here

Contestation and Democracy in Eastern Europe

Keynote Lecture, Annual Graduate Conference for East European Studies, Akademie für Politische Bildung Tutzing, 19 June 2015Movie Rings (2017)

  • Is East European politics more contested than in the past?
  • Why has public contestation increased?
  • How does increased contestation influence democracy and the prospects of democratization in Eastern Europe?
Turnout
(c) Martin Brusis

Report (in German):JOE2015_AkPB_Report

East-Central Europe and the European Crises

Claudia Matthes and I prepared a paper for the panel: “Demokratieentwicklung in vergleichender Perspektive”, organized at the annual conference of the DVPW section on Comparative Politics, German Institute of Global and Area Studies, 25 – 27 February 2015

The conference venue: GIGA Hamburg
The conference venue: GIGA Hamburg

East-Central European Democracies Adrift? Trajectories and their Causes

Electoral landslides, corruption scandals involving political leaders, declining satisfaction with democracy, mass protests and the erosion of democratic accountability institutions in one of the countries, Hungary, raise questions about the development of East-Central European democracies. Our paper argues that these democracies are subject to several drift processes triggered by the crises of economic and European integration and the deeping dealignment between voters and political parties. The impact of these factors differs from country to country, depending on its configuration of institutional constraints, socio-political cleavages and citizens’ expectations. In the paper, we examine how these structural factors influence democratic governance in East-Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) and why some of these democracies have been more resilient than others. read more

Next Generation Democracy

Trends and Scenarios for Post-Soviet Eurasia

NGD Logo

Two reports for the “Next Generation Democracy” project, a multi-stakeholder process under the coordination of the Club de Madrid, the world’s largest forum of former democratic Presidents and Prime Ministers. The overall aim of NGD is to better enable democracy to meet the expectations and needs of all citizens and preserve their freedom and dignity while securing a sustainable future for generations to come.

NGD facilitates a discussion on the state and future of democracy in order to formulate both regional agendas and a global agenda, to reverse disquieting trends and advance democracy worldwide. The project progressively offers a comprehensive analysis of regional dynamics in democratic governance, a projection of relevant trends, and a compilation of transformative practices and transformative ideas to be discussed in a series of policy dialogues as well as through on-line exchanges. This will help generate collective responses, rather than fragmented and independent actions, and shape consensus around shared, forward-looking, action-oriented agendas. read more

On the Conflict between Orbán and Simicska

An interview with Andrej Matišák from Slovakia’s daily newspaper Pravda, 7.2.2015

In early 2015 Lajos Simicska, an influential businessman affiliated with Hungary’s governing party FIDESZ waged a conflict with Hungary’s controversial Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

What is this “fight” between Simicska and Orban about, what’s the main problem?

On the surface, Simicska has waged this war against Orbán because he sees his media companies as a victim of the new media advertisement taxation rules the government is preparing. Since the government is under pressure to change the highly progressive, size-dependent tax rates targeting RTL Klub (a looming treaty infringement procedure before the European Court of Justice), the government decided to introduce a tax rate that would burden Simicska’s companies. However, this conflict is probably only a symptom of the more fundamental alienation that has occurred in the course of the last year between Orbán and Simicska, the hitherto prime oligarch of FIDESZ. The most likely explanation seems to be that Orbán lost trust in Simicska and has begun viewing him as too powerful and a threat to FIDESZ rule. Therefore Orbán sought to strengthen other FIDESZ-affiliated oligarchs (Zsolt Hernádi, MOL-CEO, and István Garancsi, Videoton FC owner) in order to reduce his dependence on Simicska.

How serious is this for the government?

Orbán’s rule has now also become threatened from inside the state and party apparatus. Many insiders used to be loyal to Simicska and now have to change their allegiance or have to be purged. This could strengthen insiders who are considering a coup against Orbán. Simicska could also join the opposition movement if the government will act against his assets.

See also Andrej Matišák’s English-language blog.

Ethno-Regional Diversity and Political Integration in Eastern Europe

A seminar  for PhD students at Kazakh National University Al’-Farabi, Almaty

Eastern Europe has been shaped by historically late state and nation building. Due to this trajectory, questions of state identity and cohesion have acquired persisting political relevance. Ethnopolitical conflicts have led to the disintegration of all three state socialist federations. Ethnopolitical cleavages structure party systems in the new nation states of Eastern Europe, particularly where they are related to persisting ethnoregional diversity.

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Author: László Sebők, Teleki László Foundation and Südost-Institut

The course discussed the political integration of ethnoregional diversity in connection with the territorial restructuring of states which occured in the context of public administration reform, the consolidation of peace agreements and the preparation for accession to the European Union. Drivers, paths and outcomes of regionalization processses were compared.