Next Generation Democracy

Trends and Scenarios for Post-Soviet Eurasia

NGD LogoTwo reports for the “Next Generation Democracy” project, a multi-stakeholder process under the coordination of the Club de Madrid, the world’s largest forum of former democratic Presidents and Prime Ministers. The overall aim of NGD is to better enable democracy to meet the expectations and needs of all citizens and preserve their freedom and dignity while securing a sustainable future for generations to come.

NGD facilitates a discussion on the state and future of democracy in order to formulate both regional agendas and a global agenda, to reverse disquieting trends and advance democracy worldwide. The project progressively offers a comprehensive analysis of regional dynamics in democratic governance, a projection of relevant trends, and a compilation of transformative practices and transformative ideas to be discussed in a series of policy dialogues as well as through on-line exchanges. This will help generate collective responses, rather than fragmented and independent actions, and shape consensus around shared, forward-looking, action-oriented agendas. read more

Die prekäre Basis zwischenstaatlicher Solidarität

Beitrag für das Debattenmagazin “The European“, 17.4.2014

Die Europäische Union hat ihre von Zahlungsunfähigkeit bedrohten Mitgliedstaaten erfolgreich stabilisiert. Sie errichtete einen Europäischen Stabilitätsmechanismus, der gefährdeten Mitgliedstaaten des Euro-Währungsraums umfangreiche Kredite gewährt, wenn diese sich zur Umsetzung von Wirtschaftsreformen verpflichten. Die Europäische Zentralbank erklärte ihre Bereitschaft, kurzfristige Anleihen von Staaten anzukaufen, die den Stabilitätsmechanismus in Anspruch nehmen. Damit konnte die EU die Finanzmärkte davon überzeugen, dass die gesamte Eurozone den Ausfall von Krediten an einzelne Mitgliedstaaten mit Zahlungsproblemen verhindern wird. read more

Ein Vorschlag zum Status der Krim

Ein Beitrag für das IPG Journal,7.4.2014

Die Zukunft der Ukraine entscheidet sich nicht auf der Krim. Deshalb wäre eine Strategie des Westens verfehlt, die Russland aufgrund der völkerrechtswidrigen Krim-Annexion nicht an der Neugestaltung des post-revolutionären ukrainischen Staates beteiligt. Sie würde die Ukraine zum Opfer einer neuen Ost-West-Konfrontation machen. Gegenwärtig sind die westlichen Staaten und Russland jedoch in einer Blockadekonstellation, die vor allem den russischen und ukrainischen Nationalisten in Russland und der Ukraine in die Hände spielt. read more

Business Elites and the Eurasian Economic Union Project

Paper for the Workshop  “Elite Networks in Russia and Ukraine. Change, Structures and Political Role”, , German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin, 13-14 February 2014

Abstract

Business elites can be considered important advocates of Eurasian integration since neofunctionalist theory has assigned them a key role in the emergence of supranational EU governance structures. Do business elites in Russia articulate a demand for supranational policies that supports political elites in their efforts to create such structures? To examine this question, the paper firstly discusses existing political and economic rationales for the recent steps of integration. While political motives appear to prevail, plausible economic reasons can also be identified. The relevance of the economic rationales is further explored by studying whether and how Russian business elites assess the Eurasian Economic Union project. The paper finds that the Eurasian Economic Commission has sought to incorporate business representatives into its legislative procedure. However, major Russian business associations have devoted only selective and limited attention to Eurasian economic integration. There is empirical evidence that representatives of medium-technology industries outside the fuel sector most actively promote the project. In contrast, leading business representatives have revealed expectations of intergovernmentalist politics that are likely to impede a neofunctionalist mechanism of reinforcing Eurasian integration. read more

Trade Liberalization and Democracy

A Research Note for the Policy Planning Staff, Federal Foreign Office of Germany, 10 June 2013

Summary:

The aim of the proposed study is to analyze whether trade liberalization has facilitated market economy and democracy, how to reinforce this impact through complementary policies and how to use trade liberalization to achieve a democratization in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This study is to be elaborated in a cooperation between economists and political scientists, and its findings / policy recommendations are to be discussed and agreed with scholars from France and Poland. To organize this cooperation, the research questions need to be addressed and operationalized in different modules. read more

Making Reform Happen

Towards a Diagnostic Framework

Keynote paper for the SELLER Network Conference, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, 21-25 May 2012, Budva

Abstract

The present paper suggests a conceptual framework that disentangles the “politics of policy reform” as a chain of delegation and accountability relations. This framework shall help reformers and consultants to analyze weak links in the chain. The proposed approach overlaps with the notion of a policy cycle, but focuses on political actors and their interdependence, while avoiding the temporal, institutionalized sequence associated with the cycle idea. read more

White Paper on Multi-Level Governance

In 2009, the EU Committee of Regions adopted a White Paper on Multi-Level Governance. During the public consultation of this document, I prepared the following opinion:

From a theoretical perspective, the most convincing strategy of institutional design would be to ensure a congruence between those affected by policies and those eligible to elect the political representatives who decide on these policies. Such a congruence of constituencies would create the best conditions for policymakers to be held accountable for their policies and thus strengthen the incentives for responsive policymaking. In contrast, an incongruence between those responsible for and those affected by a policy would provide incentives for unaccountable and unresponsive policymaking (e.g. negative external effects, moral hazard, freeriding). read more